The Biogenic Balance: Characterising emissions, matching removals and mapping EU policies

Reaching net-zero emissions worldwide will require removing as much greenhouse gas from the atmosphere as we emit, but ensuring net-zero is sustained will require matching the right emissions with the right removals. This scientifically established concept, known as the Like-for-Like (LfL) principle is crucial for achieving durable net-zero. In simple terms, the LfL principle outlines that permanent carbon removal methods, such as capturing and storing CO₂ underground, should be used to balance out fossil fuel emissions. Meanwhile, temporary carbon storage in soils, forests, or wood products should help balance out biogenic emissions. These biogenic emissions are part of the short-term carbon cycle and come from the burning or breakdown of recently living material.

Putting the LfL principle into practice faces some barriers. Because today the largest portion of emissions by far are fossil fuels, there is some concern from Nature Based Solution operators that if regulations follow the LfL principle, it could mean less demand and business for the temporary (biogenic) removals these operators provide. To answer this question, we analysed the sources, compositions, and volumes of global biogenic emissions.

Our analysis shows that farming, waste, and ecosystem change are the biggest sources of biogenic emissions today—emitting more than nine times what temporary removals are currently storing. Despite their prevalence, the current EU policy frameworks in place do not adequately target biogenic emissions either through targeted reduction measures or by appropriately counterbalancing them with removals. Many of these biogenic emissions will be hard to get rid of going forward, meaning temporary removals will play a vital role in balancing the books, and must be adequately addressed in the EU’s policy mix. Policies like the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), Land Use, Land Use and Forestry (LULUCF) Regulation, Common Agriculture Practice (CAP), and the new Carbon Removal and Carbon Farming (CRCF) Regulation should work together to give temporary removals a clear, fair place in the path to net-zero.

• Anthropogenic biogenic emissions originate from the burning or decomposition of (recently) living organic material or biological processes as a result of human behaviour.
• In GHG inventories, these biogenic emissions are most prominent in the agriculture sector, with additional volumes coming from the waste and LULUCF sectors.
• Currently, GHG inventories generally distinguish emissions by sector, and aggregating biogenic emissions across sectors at the global scale is challenging.
• Enhanced microbial activity in wetlands due to climate change is a source of anthropogenic biogenic emissions which may not be (fully) reported in GHG inventories; it is likely that other sources of emissions from ecosystem disturbance are also not captured.
• Achieving durable net-zero requires a like-for-like balancing of removals and emissions, meaning permanent removals are used to neutralise fossil-fuel emissions, and temporary removals, which capture carbon in biosphere or products, are used to neutralise human-caused biogenic emissions.
• Our analysis suggests that anthropogenic biogenic emissions are currently roughly 9 times greater than temporary nature-based removals globally.
• A large portion of these biogenic emissions are considered hard-to-abate and will likely persist in the future, meaning temporary biogenic removals will be an important tool for reaching net-zero.
• In the context of the EU, biogenic emissions and removals are covered by several key policy frameworks (e.g., the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR), Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation (LULUCF-R), Common Agricultural Practice (CAP), and forthcoming Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF).
• These frameworks provide limited clarity on the future role and pricing of temporary removals but should ideally be leveraged to ensure temporary removals support a like-for-like approach.